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About the model
A modeling sandbox, not a proposal.
- Baseline is a projected SY2030: current elementary boundaries, board-adopted middle/high boundaries (Woodward open), and each school's forecast-mid enrollment. SSIMS is open with a held-from-2026 estimate — its closure was suspended by the Board (Dec 2025) and folded into the boundary study.
- Units are census block groups, split where school boundaries cross them(blocks grouped by BG × ES × MS × HS zone), so the baseline reproduces official boundaries; boundary-cut blocks are apportioned by area.
- Per-unit student counts are 2020-census-weighted (plus development-pipeline bumps) rakes of the 2030 forecast; sums reproduce each school's forecast exactly. ES spatial pattern uses ages 0–5 as a young-family proxy.
- Race is approximated from block-group residents and FARMS from block-group poverty, each calibrated to actual 2025 school totals and held constant; "neighborhood income" is a household-weighted mean of block-group medians.
- Unpairing assumes each building can house any K–5 grade; real conversions carry capital costs the model doesn't price.
- Everything here is a modeled estimate for comparing scenarios — not a record, not a proposal, and not MCPS's. Best on a desktop screen.